Bir \u015fehirde deprem tehlikesini haritalamak g\u00f6rece tan\u0131d\u0131k bir i\u015ftir: zemin, fay hatlar\u0131, ivme de\u011ferleri, bina sto\u011fu\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peki ayn\u0131 deprem, neden baz\u0131 mahallelerde daha \u201cy\u0131k\u0131c\u0131\u201d bir toplumsal etkiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrken, ba\u015fka yerlerde g\u00f6rece daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma ile atlat\u0131labiliyor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu sorunun cevab\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman haritan\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen katmanlar\u0131nda: gelir d\u00fczeyinde, ya\u015f da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda, engellilik durumunda, sosyal dayan\u0131\u015fma a\u011flar\u0131nda, risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda, harekete ge\u00e7me kapasitesinde sakl\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi\u2019nin \u201cAfetler Kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Sosyal Hasar G\u00f6rebilirlik\u201d ana raporu tam da bu noktaya i\u015faret ediyor: fiziksel kay\u0131p ve ekonomik kay\u0131plar afetlerin en net g\u00f6stergeleri olsa da, toplumun afetlere haz\u0131rlanma\u2013m\u00fccadele\u2013iyile\u015fme s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini belirleyen sosyal \u00f6zellikleri anlamadan \u201cb\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl\u201d risk resmi tamamlanm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu yaz\u0131da \u201csosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k (sosyal hasar g\u00f6rebilirlik)\u201d kavram\u0131n\u0131 insan\u00ee bir dille a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131z: Ne demek? Neden kritik? Nas\u0131l haritalan\u0131r? Ve en \u00f6nemlisi: Bu haritalar nas\u0131l aksiyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k nedir?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Sosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, en basit haliyle, bir toplulu\u011fun tehlikeye maruz kalmadan \u00f6nceki \u00f6zelliklerinin; tehlikeye maruz kalma d\u00fczeyini, direncini ve sonu\u00e7larla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma becerisini nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirdi\u011fini anlat\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m \u0130stanbul \u00f6zelinde de, olas\u0131 \u201c\u0130stanbul Depremi\u201d senaryosu temel al\u0131narak sosyal boyutta ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (URL-1<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00d6nemli bir ayr\u0131m: Sosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k \u201cyaln\u0131zca yoksulluk\u201d demek de\u011fildir. Yoksulluk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir belirleyici olabilir; ama tek ba\u015f\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131klamaz. \u00d6rne\u011fin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n gibi bile\u015fenler, bir afetin \u201csosyal hasar\u0131n\u0131\u201d b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir veya azaltabilir. \u0130BB \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n amac\u0131 da zaten bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\/zay\u0131f yanlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131l\u0131p sosyal hasar g\u00f6rebilirlik seviyesini anlamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130stanbul \u00f6rne\u011fi: Hayat\u0131n kendisini \u00f6l\u00e7mek<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130BB\u2019nin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, sosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 soyut bir kavram olarak b\u0131rakmay\u0131p, sahaya indiriyor: T\u00dc\u0130K adres verisi \u00fczerinden geni\u015f bir \u00f6rnekleme dayanarak anket kurgusu yap\u0131l\u0131yor ve CAPI (bilgisayar destekli y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme) y\u00f6ntemi kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. Rapor, 50 bini a\u015fan hanelik \u00f6rneklem \u00fczerinden sahaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; anketlerin on binlerce hanede tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek cevapl\u0131l\u0131kla sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Burada kritik olan \u015fu: Bu t\u00fcr \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar \u201cinsan hik\u00e2yelerini\u201d say\u0131ya indirgeme riski ta\u015f\u0131r; ama do\u011fru tasarland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tam tersini yapar: \u0130statisti\u011fi, ger\u00e7ek ihtiya\u00e7lara ba\u011flar. ANOFA Notes\u2019ta vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi \u201cveri y\u0131\u011fmak\u201d de\u011fil, veriyi hayatla ili\u015fkilendirmek; k\u0131r\u0131lgan gruplar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lmak ve kaynaklar\u0131 do\u011fru yere y\u00f6nlendirmektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sosyal hasar g\u00f6rebilirlik haritas\u0131 ne i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu haritalar, tek bir \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alan\u201d \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in de\u011fil; karar an\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1) \u00d6nceliklendirme: 2) Hedefli m\u00fcdahale: 3) Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve planlama kararlar\u0131: 4) E\u015fitlik perspektifi: Haritalama nas\u0131l yap\u0131l\u0131r? (Kavramsal bir re\u00e7ete)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Sosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k haritalamas\u0131, genelde d\u00f6rt ad\u0131mdan olu\u015fur:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1) K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bile\u015fenlere ay\u0131r\u0131n 2) Veriyi \u201cyer\u201d ile konu\u015fturun 3) Skor \u00fcretin; ama \u201cneden\u201di kaybetmeyin 4) Sonucu eyleme ba\u011flay\u0131n Sosyo-ekonomi ile k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki net ili\u015fki<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130BB raporu, sosyo-ekonomik stat\u00fc y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e sosyal hasar g\u00f6rebilirli\u011fin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u201c\u00e7ok net\u201d bir ili\u015fki olarak ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil; ama politika a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir hat\u0131rlatma: Sadece \u201cbina g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme\u201d konu\u015fursan\u0131z, baz\u0131 mahallelerde risk yine y\u00fcksek kalabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sorun yaln\u0131zca yap\u0131 de\u011fil; haz\u0131rl\u0131k kapasitesi, eri\u015fim, dayan\u0131\u015fma ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan gruplar\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Raporda il\u00e7e baz\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek sosyal hasar g\u00f6rebilirlik skoruna sahip il\u00e7enin Sancaktepe oldu\u011fu; ard\u0131ndan Sultanbeyli, Sultangazi, Esenler ve \u00c7ekmek\u00f6y\u2019\u00fcn geldi\u011fi belirtiliyor. (Bu t\u00fcr s\u0131ralamalar tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u201cetiket\u201d de\u011fildir; do\u011fru okuma, o il\u00e7elerde hangi bile\u015fenin bask\u0131n oldu\u011funa bak\u0131p eylemi ona g\u00f6re kurmakt\u0131r.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Dikkat edilmesi gereken iki risk: Etiketleme ve kesinlik yan\u0131lsamas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1) Etiketleme riski: 2) Kesinlik yan\u0131lsamas\u0131: ANOFA olarak risk ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k analizlerinde sosyal \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemsiyoruz: sosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k analizi, \u015fehir \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde deprem kay\u0131p tahmini, ta\u015fk\u0131n riski, afet sonras\u0131 toparlanma gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n her birinde \u201ckime ne oluyor?\u201d sorusu merkezi.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n ANOFA olarak risk ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k analizlerinde sosyal \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemsiyoruz: sosyal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k analizi, \u015fehir \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde deprem kay\u0131p tahmini, ta\u015fk\u0131n riski, afet sonras\u0131 toparlanma gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n her birinde temel soru hep ayn\u0131: Yaln\u0131zca \"ne oluyor\" de\u011fil, \u201ckime ne oluyor?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ve son bir not: Bu analizleri, yaln\u0131zca uzman raporu olarak de\u011fil; basit ama g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc CBS ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla (online haritalar, dashboard\u2019lar, veri y\u00f6netimi platformlar\u0131) karar vericinin ve uygulay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kullanabilece\u011fi bir dile kavu\u015fturmak elzem.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Mapping earthquake hazard in a city is relatively familiar work: soil conditions, fault lines, ground motion, and building stock. But there is a question that these layers do not answer on their own: Why does the same hazard turn into a far more severe social impact in some neighbourhoods, while other areas recover faster? The“Social Vulnerability Mapping: Risk Is Not Only \u201cWhere?\u201d, It\u2019s \u201cWho?\u201d”<\/span> yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131 oku<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":237292048,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"Discover how social vulnerability impacts earthquake resilience in Istanbul, revealing the hidden factors that shape community recovery after disasters.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Understanding Social Vulnerability in Earthquake Risk Management","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":false,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4189346],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized-en","entry"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/peXAgD-Oi","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/237292048"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3118"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3125,"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3118\/revisions\/3125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anofa.co\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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Hangi mahallelerde afet haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131, e\u011fitim, bilin\u00e7lendirme daha acil?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sorun \u201cgelir\u201d mi bask\u0131n, \u201crisk alg\u0131s\u0131\u201d m\u0131, yoksa \u201chareket kabiliyeti\u201d mi? (Ayn\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k skorunun arkas\u0131nda \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 nedenler olabilir.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Altyap\u0131\/\u00fcstyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda \u201csosyal etki\u201d boyutunu hesaba katmak. \u0130BB raporu da \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131; kentsel yenileme, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, mek\u00e2nsal planlama ve e\u011fitim\/bilin\u00e7lendirme faaliyetlerine altl\u0131k olacak bilgi \u00fcretimi olarak konumluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOrtalama\u201d iyile\u015firken kimler geride kal\u0131yor? Toparlanma adil mi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u0130BB yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, sosyal hasar g\u00f6rebilirli\u011fi bile\u015fenlere ay\u0131r\u0131p a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131rmaya dayan\u0131yor. Ama\u00e7, demografi, sosyo-ekonomi, risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ve tutum, de\u011ferler gibi k\u00fcmeler \u00fczerinden skor \u00fcretmek ve sonra mahalle\/il\u00e7e \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine ta\u015f\u0131mak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anket verisi, idari veri, n\u00fcfus verisi, tesis\/eri\u015fim verisi\u2026 Bunlar tek ba\u015f\u0131na liste de\u011fildir. CBS (GIS) burada devreye girer: veriyi mek\u00e2na ba\u011flar, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir hale getirir, katmanlar aras\u0131nda ili\u015fki kurar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sadece tek bir endeks \u00fcretmek kolayd\u0131r. Zor olan, endeksin arkas\u0131ndaki nedeni korumakt\u0131r. \u0130BB raporunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taraf\u0131, bile\u015fen a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131yla \u201changi bile\u015fen bask\u0131n?\u201d sorusunu da cevaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r; b\u00f6ylece aksiyon tasar\u0131m\u0131 kolayla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130yi bir k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k haritas\u0131, rapor raf\u0131nda kalmaz. Risk azalt\u0131m program\u0131na, ileti\u015fim plan\u0131na, yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00f6nceli\u011fine, yerel kapasite geli\u015ftirmeye ba\u011flan\u0131r. Risk-odakl\u0131 planlaman\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc de budur: risk bilgisi, g\u00fcnl\u00fck planlama kararlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine girer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u201c\u015eu mahalle k\u0131r\u0131lgan\u201d demek kolay; ama bazen incitici ve d\u0131\u015flay\u0131c\u0131 bir dile d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir. Haritalar, \u201csorunlu yerleri\u201d damgalamak i\u00e7in de\u011fil, hizmet g\u00f6t\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k endeksleri birer \u201cmodel\u201ddir; yani kabuller, veri kalitesi ve \u00f6l\u00e7ek se\u00e7imi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 etkiler. Bu y\u00fczden \u015feffafl\u0131k (hangi veri, hangi y\u00f6ntem, hangi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131l\u0131k) esast\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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